Market Update April 2026

April was shaped by two contrasting narratives: a strong equity market rally, driven by a decisive rotation back into artificial intelligence and the technology supply chain, and a renewed escalation of the war involving Iran in the final days of the month. Despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed and oil prices ending the month near multi-year highs, equity markets posted one of their strongest monthly performances in years. The S&P 500 closed April at new all-time highs, while emerging markets were the strongest performers, with Taiwan and South Korea, the two economies most deeply embedded in the global semiconductor value chain, producing exceptional gains.

Brent crude was extraordinarily volatile, oscillating between roughly USD 100 and an intraday high of USD 126 per barrel as ceasefire announcements and renewed escalation produced sharp moves in both directions. The mid-month relief that followed Iran’s announcement on 17 April of the Strait’s reopening proved short-lived: by the final days of the month, Brent had climbed back above USD 118 as the US naval blockade was reconfirmed and physical flows through the Strait remained at single digits per day. Yet the oil shock failed to derail equity markets, supported by a strong Q1 earnings season that confirmed the AI investment cycle remains intact. Bond markets were more mixed, with rising yields in Japan and the United Kingdom contrasting with relative stability in the US and the euro area. The Federal Reserve, the ECB and the SNB all held policy rates unchanged, each emphasising a data-dependent approach in an environment where inflation has risen on higher energy prices while medium- to long-term inflation risks are still regarded as anchored.

Geopolitical Developments

The Middle East conflict continued to dominate the geopolitical landscape, with diplomatic progress and renewed escalation alternating throughout the month. A temporary ceasefire was announced on 8 April, accompanied by a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Implementation was uneven from the outset. Iran initially sought to control transit through the Strait and impose tolls on commercial vessels, prompting the US Navy to begin a naval blockade of Iranian ports on 13 April. The resulting “dual blockade” left tanker traffic well below pre-war levels for much of the month.

On 17 April, Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to commercial shipping for the duration of an associated ceasefire in Lebanon. This triggered an immediate sharp fall in oil prices. The relief, however, did not last. Within hours, Iran reasserted tighter control over the Strait, and on 19 April the US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman. By the end of the month, negotiations had stalled again: on 29 April, President Trump announced that the US blockade would remain in place until Iran agreed to a nuclear deal, sending Brent up roughly 6% to USD 118 and briefly spiking to USD 126 the following day. The International Energy Agency continued to characterise the disruption as the largest in the history of the global oil market, with daily transits through the Strait reported in single digits for much of the month.

Beyond the Gulf, attention also turned to the Federal Reserve leadership transition. Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair advanced through the Senate after the Department of Justice halted its investigation into Powell, with confirmation expected on 15 May. In an unusual development, Chair Powell signalled at his post-meeting press conference that he intends to remain on the Board of Governors after stepping down as Chair. Markets continued to monitor the implications for monetary policy independence, although the impact on rates and the US dollar has so far remained limited. In Europe, the institutional discussion around ECB and Banque de France succession continued in the background without materially influencing policy expectations during the month.

Market Developments by Asset Class

Equities

Equities were the clear standout asset class in April. After two months under pressure from the energy shock, investors rotated decisively back into growth and technology stocks, driven by an exceptionally strong Q1 earnings season. By the end of the month, around two thirds of S&P 500 companies had reported results, with the large majority beating expectations and earnings coming in materially above consensus estimates. Technology and semiconductor stocks were among the clear winners, supported by continued robust capital expenditure from the major hyperscalers and strong results from key suppliers along the AI value chain. Towards the end of the month, however, market reaction to hyperscaler capex guidance turned mixed: Meta and Microsoft came under pressure as investors began to question the pace and scale of AI infrastructure spending.

The strongest rally was seen in emerging markets, where Taiwan and South Korea posted exceptional gains as the AI semiconductor supply chain recovered the ground lost during the geopolitical turbulence of February and March. The MSCI Emerging Markets index reached record highs and was the strongest-performing major equity index of the month. In developed markets, the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, supported by the breadth of positive earnings surprises across both technology and financials. Japan participated more modestly, while Europe ex-UK lagged as initial ceasefire optimism faded and eurozone activity data confirmed that the energy disruption continues to weigh on the real economy. The UK was the clear laggard among major markets, with its structural tilt towards energy, financials and defensives offering little exposure to the AI theme that drove returns elsewhere.

In Switzerland, the picture remained mixed. The strong Swiss franc continued to weigh on internationally exposed exporters, while defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples offered stability. The SMI participated in the broader rally but lagged technology-oriented indices, reflecting its more defensive composition. At the stock level, dispersion across sectors and individual names remained elevated, an environment that continues to favour selective, factor-based approaches.

Chart 1: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), performance in April 2026. Source: Refinitiv.

Bonds

Government bond markets were mixed in April, with performance largely driven by renewed inflation concerns following the rise in energy prices. Markets quickly repriced the path of monetary policy, pushing out rate cut expectations across several jurisdictions.

Japanese government bonds were among the weakest segments, with 10-year yields rising to multi-decade highs as the Bank of Japan adopted a more hawkish tone and revised its inflation projections upwards. UK Gilts also declined, weighed down by persistent domestic inflation: consumer prices rose to 3.3% in March, keeping the Bank of England cautious, with markets now pricing in further rate rises this year.

US Treasuries proved more resilient, supported by the country’s status as a net energy exporter and a more balanced growth backdrop. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% at its 29 April meeting, widely seen as Chair Powell’s final meeting before Kevin Warsh’s expected confirmation. The decision was unusually contested: the FOMC voted 8 to 4, with Governor Miran preferring a 25 basis point cut, while Hammack, Kashkari and Logan opposed the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement. It was the first time since October 1992 that four members dissented at a single meeting, a sign of the deep disagreement over the path ahead for monetary policy. The post-meeting statement explicitly noted that inflation remains elevated, in part reflecting higher global energy prices.

In Europe, the ECB also held rates unchanged on 30 April, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2.00% for a third consecutive meeting. President Lagarde emphasised a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. The Governing Council noted that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth had both increased, but stopped short of pre-committing to a tightening path. Eurozone inflation rose to 3.0% in April, driven almost entirely by energy prices. Markets are now pricing in a meaningful probability of further rate rises by mid-year.

Swiss government bonds continued to benefit from safe-haven demand. Swiss inflation edged up to 0.3% year-on-year in March from 0.1% in February, yet the SNB nonetheless revised down its near-term inflation forecasts and continued to flag the risk that headline inflation could briefly turn negative in the coming quarters.

Real Estate (Switzerland)

Swiss real estate continued to benefit from a low and stable interest rate environment. With the SNB policy rate firmly at 0% and no near-term prospect of either rate rises or a return to negative rates, financing conditions remain supportive while stable cash flows and structurally limited supply continue to underpin valuations. Residential demand in urban centres remains robust, while the divergence between prime and secondary commercial properties continues to widen.

The combination of safe-haven flows into the Swiss franc, low domestic inflation and a stable rate outlook continues to reinforce the role of Swiss real estate as a diversifier in CHF portfolios. While listed real estate vehicles remain sensitive to long-term yield movements, the broader environment for direct property investment remains constructive.

Commodities

Commodities posted another strong month, though the dynamics shifted meaningfully through April. Brent crude was exceptionally volatile, trading in a range of roughly USD 100 to USD 126 per barrel as markets moved between panic, relief and renewed escalation. The 17 April announcement that the Strait would reopen for commercial traffic triggered a single-day fall of more than 10%, but prices recovered quickly as Iran reasserted control over the waterway and the US Navy seized Iranian vessels. By month-end, Brent was trading near USD 118, almost double its early-year level and well above the roughly USD 73 prevailing before the outbreak of war. Physical delivery markets continued to reflect tight supply conditions.

Industrial metals also performed well, supported by surging demand for materials linked to the global build-out of AI data centres and broader infrastructure investment. Gold consolidated after the sharp correction seen in late March, finding support as a portfolio hedge but no longer the dominant safe-haven beneficiary it had been earlier in the year. The combination of a firmer US dollar, hawkish repricing in bond markets and the rotation back into risk assets weighed on precious metals more broadly.

Everon Strategies and Portfolio Positioning

Income Strategies

Our Income Strategies have continued to deliver strong results year-to-date, holding up well through both the volatility of February and March and the rebound in April. The discipline of equal weighting and the broader market coverage that our approach provides have remained valuable in an environment of significant rotation across sectors and regions.

In Switzerland, the Income Strategy is up 3.17% year-to-date, well ahead of the Swiss dividend benchmark at 1.68%. Stock selection across companies with stable cash flows has been the principal performance driver, supported by the resilience of high-quality dividend payers during periods of market stress. The structural underweight to the most cyclically exposed names also helped during the more volatile phases.

Internationally, our North American Income Strategy has continued its strong run, returning 6.62% year-to-date compared with 4.81% for the benchmark. The tilt towards high-dividend names and broader mid-cap coverage has provided diversification beyond the largest index constituents, supporting both the upside participation seen in April and the relative resilience demonstrated in the preceding months.

Chart 2: Everon Income North America, year-to-date performance. Source: Everon AG, own calculation; market data: Refinitiv.

Multi Factor Strategies

Our Multi Factor Strategies have also performed strongly year-to-date, benefiting in particular from the rotation seen in April. By combining valuation, quality, momentum and risk, the approach is well placed to participate in phases of broad market leadership as well as in periods of more concentrated leadership.

In Switzerland, the Multi Factor Strategy is up 3.89% year-to-date, ahead of the SMI. The relative outperformance has come from broader market coverage and a balanced factor exposure that rewarded both quality and momentum during the recent rotation phases.

In North America, the Multi Factor Strategy has performed particularly strongly, returning 8.87% year-to-date against 5.11% for the S&P 500. The factor mix has been well aligned with the main market themes of the year, including the renewed strength in technology and the broader market participation seen in April. As with our Income Strategies, the broader market coverage has proven advantageous in a year characterised by elevated dispersion and frequent shifts in leadership.

Outlook

The market backdrop heading into May remains finely balanced. April demonstrated that risk assets can rally meaningfully even with unresolved geopolitical tensions, provided that corporate earnings continue to deliver and the energy shock does not feed durably into core inflation. The strength of the Q1 earnings season, the resilience of US economic activity and the renewed momentum behind the AI investment cycle all provide meaningful support to the constructive case. At the same time, the renewed escalation in the final days of April, with the US blockade reconfirmed and Brent near multi-year highs, is a reminder of how quickly the picture can change.

The risks remain genuinely two-sided. A durable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely see oil prices fall, easing inflation concerns and supporting a continuation of the rally. A renewed and more sustained disruption, by contrast, could quickly revive stagflation fears, placing central banks in the uncomfortable position of having to choose between price stability and growth. The unusual depth of the disagreement within the FOMC at its most recent meeting already illustrates how difficult that trade-off has become.

In this environment, a well-diversified portfolio with disciplined exposure across asset classes, regions and factors remains more important than ever. The broader, more balanced approach embedded in our strategies is well suited to navigating what is likely to remain a headline-driven and divergent market environment.